There’s a scene in Succession, giffed above, the place Logan Roy tells his scheming kids that he loves them, however they “will not be severe folks”.
That is the very last thing he ever says to them.
Anyway, I point out this as a result of it’s how I really feel practically each time I see legacy Brexit commentary comparable to this. (Minus the “I like you bit”, as a result of that may be bizarre.)
As a result of, c’mon. Chaps. Get a grip.
Or to place it one other manner, in what different context would “responding to the considerations of companies and dealing to take away commerce friction along with your largest buying and selling associate” elicit such a response?
Anyhow, taking every level because it comes:
Is the brand new EU-UK deal (paperwork right here, right here and right here) a “Betrayal” of the Brexit vote?
To reply this, we solely must test one factor: Has it led the UK to rejoin the EU? Reply: No. Then, no, it’s not a “Betrayal of Brexit.”
Will the brand new youth mobility scheme be a “return of free motion”?
On this, I’m going to offer folks saying this the good thing about the doubt and assume they’ve by no means used a search engine to seek for “youth mobility scheme” slightly than being utterly disingenuous.
Freedom of motion grants EU residents the best to dwell and work within the UK indefinitely with out a visa.
Youth mobility schemes — which the UK at the moment has in one kind or one other with Australia, Canada, New Zealand, South Korea, Andorra, Iceland, San Marino, Monaco, Uruguay, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and kinda India — enable a “younger particular person” (normally below 30, typically below 35) to use for a visa that enables them to work within the UK for 2 years (notice: typically three). These visas are sometimes restricted to a hard and fast variety of younger folks from a given nation in a given 12 months.
At this level, it’s most likely price mentioning that the earlier UK authorities tried to barter bilateral offers on youth mobility with particular person member states. And it wasn’t considered as free motion then …
So, yeah. Not the identical factor. Clearly.
Will the brand new deal bind the UK again into EU guidelines and the ECJ?
You realize what? Sure, slightly. The SPS Settlement will bind the UK to comply with related EU meals security laws, albeit with the potential for restricted exemptions. So sure, this settlement will consequence within the UK persevering with to comply with EU meals security guidelines. (Within the context of the power little bit of the deal, there’s additionally a little bit of rule binding).
However the kicker right here is … the UK was sort of doing this anyway. With a few small exceptions the place both the UK moved extra shortly (e.g., gene modifying) or extra slowly (the EU launched some issues the UK didn’t), each time the UK was given the choice to diverge from EU meals security guidelines … it didn’t.
For instance, below Prime Minister Boris Johnson, the UK confronted down requests from the US, Canada and Australia to vary its EU-inherited meals security guidelines within the context of FTA negotiations. Only a few days in the past, Starmer managed to get a “deal” out of US with out budging on meals security.
The revealed desire of successive UK governments is that they don’t really assume diverging from EU meals security guidelines might be fashionable. So that they hold not doing it.
On condition that, it most likely does make sense to formalise the convergence and profit from the not insignificant elimination of commerce friction at the moment plaguing UK meals exports to the EU.
And sure, there are trade-offs. In fact there are. However a lot of the commentary is foolish.
For instance, an often-raised level is that following EU meals security guidelines will make it not possible for the UK to do commerce offers. Now, I’m undecided about you, however I’m fairly certain that since Brexit, the UK has agreed to new FTAs with Australia, New Zealand, India, and the US (effectively, sort of not likely, however what I imply) and acceded to CPTPP. Switzerland, a rustic additionally sure to EU SPS guidelines, has free commerce agreements with fairly a couple of international locations the EU doesn’t have FTAs with, comparable to China and Indonesia. Given the purpose above — that no UK authorities really desires to maneuver away from EU SPS guidelines — binding itself to the EU and due to this fact having the ability to blame the EU if Donald Trump asks once more most likely makes everyones life slightly simpler.
On the ECJ level, sure, the UK has signed up once more to the provisions it already signed as much as within the context of each the Withdrawal Settlement and the Northern Eire/Protocol: an unbiased dispute decision mechanism that should consider the intepretation of the ECJ when adjudicating over an intepretation of EU regulation. So sure, just like the post-Brexit governments earlier than it, this UK authorities has agreed a task for the ECJ.
Not on the listing above, however given it comes up quite a bit: FISH.
Sure, the brand new association will see the UK prolong EU entry to UK fishing waters for 12 years. However fish has all the time been sophisticated. Half the trade (onshore, farmed) sort of bought screwed by the SPS checks that the deal goes to repair, whereas the offshore chaps have been by no means going to be glad it doesn’t matter what.
So yeah, Brexit was fairly dangerous for the fishing trade, however not likely for the explanations usually given.
Chart by way of Labour MP Torsten Bell on Bluesky:
Anyway, my solely actual level right here is that there is no such thing as a longer any must take unserious folks significantly. 9 years after the Brexit vote, it’s certainly time to start out speaking about what’s and what’s not within the UK’s buying and selling curiosity sensibly once more.
Greatest,
Sam
