Month-to-month GDP is added to key indicators adopted by NBER BCDC:
Determine 1: Nonfarm Payroll incl benchmark revision employment from CES (daring blue), implied NFP from preliminary benchmark by December (skinny blue), civilian employment as reported (orange), industrial manufacturing (pink), private revenue excluding present transfers in Ch.2017$ (daring gentle inexperienced), manufacturing and commerce gross sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (gentle blue), and month-to-month GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. 2025Q1 GDP is advance launch. Supply: BLS by way of FRED, Federal Reserve, BEA, S&P World Market Insights (nee Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (5/1/2025 launch), and creator’s calculations.
Nonetheless no recession obvious in arduous knowledge by March (and April for employment). Though beware the peculiar points of the pre-tariff interval, together with surge in transportation/warehousing employment.
