Tropical Storm Lorenzo shaped within the central tropical Atlantic at 5 a.m. EDT Monday, Oct. 13. At 11 a.m. EDT Monday, Lorenzo was positioned halfway between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, headed northwest at 16 mph (26 km/h). Lorenzo had prime winds of fifty mph (85 km/h) and a central strain of 1002 mb. Lorenzo is predicted to recurve to the north and northeast out to sea, peaking as a high-end tropical storm with 70 mph winds on Thursday. Lorenzo poses no risk to any land areas.
Lorenzo’s formation date of Oct. 13 comes near the 1991-2020 common formation date of the season’s twelfth named storm of Oct. 11. This pulls the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season to near-average standing in three out of 4 classes, with 12 named storms, 4 hurricanes (Class 5 Erin, Class 4 Gabrielle, Class 5 Humberto, and Class 2 Imelda), three main hurricanes, and an amassed cyclone power, or ACE, index 91% of common. The 1991-2020 averages by this level within the season are 12.2 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes, and a couple of.7 main hurricanes. Sometimes, about 15% of hurricane season exercise stays after October 13 (as measured by ACE index).
A uncommon location for a late-season storm
As documented by Michael Lowry right this moment, it’s uncommon for a named storm to kind this far east within the deep tropics (south of 20°N) this late within the hurricane season. This final occurred again in 2003 when each Nicholas and Peter shaped very late (Oct. 13 and Dec., 7, respectively) far east over the Atlantic Important Growth Area, an space usually reserved for August and September formations.
Lorenzo is the second Atlantic named storm up to now 4 days to kind in an uncommon location. On Thursday, Oct. 9, Subtropical Storm Karen shaped whereas positioned at 44.5 levels north, 33.0 levels west, or about 545 miles northwest of the Azores. That made it the northernmost system in Atlantic historical past to be designated as a tropical or subtropical storm by the Nationwide Hurricane Middle. Karen survived as a subtropical storm in its unlikely location for less than 18 hours, being declared post-tropical by NHC at 5 p.m. EDT Friday.
The runner-up for northernmost named storm within the Atlantic behind Karen since NHC started naming subtropical storms in 2002 was Tropical Storm Grace, which developed northeast of the Azores on October 4, 2009, whereas at 41.2 levels north and 20.3 levels west. As reported by Michael Lowry, the HURDAT 2 database additionally features a single entry for a hurricane on August 5, 1858, positioned at 45.0°N.
Control the Caribbean subsequent week
A tropical wave rising from the west coast of Africa right this moment is predicted to maneuver west at 15-20 mph this week and arrive within the Lesser Antilles Islands round Monday, Oct. 20. Because the disturbance approaches the islands, wind shear is predicted to be low sufficient to permit the wave to develop right into a tropical cyclone, as predicted by the Monday morning runs of the GFS and European fashions and lots of of their ensemble members. Whereas it’s too early to be involved a couple of particular risk, the mannequin sign is powerful sufficient that residents of the Caribbean islands needs to be listening to future forecasts of this disturbance. As of 8 a.m. EDT Monday, NHC had not but highlighted the wave of their Tropical Climate Outlook.
Bob Henson contributed to this submit.
