Bear in mind, we’ve obtained tariff *pauses* (pl.), OBBB, debt ceiling restrict, and so on. Do you anticipate the parents within the current administration to have a deal with on issues?
Determine 1: EPU (blue, left scale), EPU 7 day centered transferring common (darkish crimson, left scale), EPU-trade (teal, proper scale), EPU-trade 7 day centered transferring common (crimson, proper scale). Supply: policyuncertainty.com.
As a test, right here’s the Caldara et al. measure in contrast in opposition to the Baker, Bloom and Davis measure of commerce coverage uncertainty.
Determine 2: Commerce Coverage Uncertainty (black, left scale), EPU 7 day centered transferring common (pink, left scale), EPU-trade (teal, proper scale), EPU-trade 7 day centered transferring common (crimson, proper scale). Supply: policyuncertainty.com, and Iacoviella et al.
