In my podcast sequence, “Environmental Insights: Conversations on Coverage and Apply from the Harvard Environmental Economics Program,” I’ve had the pleasure of partaking in conversations with environmental economics students who’ve additionally had vital expertise within the coverage world. My visitor in the newest episode is a good instance of this, as a result of I used to be joined by Joseph Aldy, my colleague on the Harvard Kennedy College, the place he’s the Teresa and John Heinz Professor of the Apply of Environmental Coverage. Joe’s analysis focuses on local weather change coverage, power coverage, and regulatory coverage, and, importantly, from 2009 to 2010, Joe served as Particular Assistant to President Barack Obama for Vitality and Atmosphere, which sport him vital expertise each within the economics and the politics of local weather change coverage. You possibly can take heed to our full dialog right here.
This was Joe’s second go to to the podcast, the primary having been in November of 2019, in what was the 7th of 66 episodes we’ve now produced. I imagine he was the primary visitor to come back again for a return go to, and the explanation why I double-dipped was that once I determined to ask somebody to evaluate what has occurred and can occur within the second Trump administration’s first 100 days, significantly in regard to home environmental, power, and local weather coverage, Joe Aldy was my first alternative. (I emphasize home coverage, as a result of I’ve already written in two latest weblog essays about what to anticipate within the worldwide area, however not within the home area: The Evolving China-USA Local weather Coverage Relationship; and What Trump’s Exit from the Paris Settlement Will Actually Imply.)
We’re about half-way by means of the primary 100 days of this new administration (though it feels prefer it’s already been a number of years). So, earlier than we mentioned Joe Aldy’s expectations for the following two to 4 years, we centered on what has already occurred.
Aldy begins by describing how the Trump administration has moved rapidly on many fronts utilizing quite a few government orders, rolling again regulatory insurance policies, and making a Nationwide Vitality Dominance Council to confront what it has termed a “nationwide power emergency.”
“It’s a little bit little bit of a problem to say we’re truly coping with a form of power emergency that was described by the President as a result of we’re producing extra power now than we ever have. Once we have a look at the truth that we’re at report highs in oil manufacturing, gasoline manufacturing, and renewable energy manufacturing on the availability aspect, we’re not essentially dealing with what one would possibly consider as an emergency in terms of power.”
Aldy goes on to notice that he’s alarmed, nevertheless, by among the brazen early strikes the administration is making within the power and local weather house.
“We see efforts happening now that I believe are probably extra basic in undermining the flexibility of the federal authorities to control greenhouse gasoline emissions. Tasked on day one to EPA was to evaluate the prospect of undoing the Endangerment Discovering below the Clear Air Act. That’s the required basis [for] the EPA [to exercise its] authority to control greenhouse gasoline emissions,” he says. “They’re transferring in that route, and loads of that is going to finish up within the courts.”
However Joe contends that the courts might not be so sympathetic towards the administration.
“A part of the response from those that wish to gradual this type of retrenchment in terms of clear power and local weather coverage is to litigate, and a few of what’s taking place is occurring so quick. I imply, we noticed this in Trump 1.0 the place some issues they attempt to do in a short time. What they did was not in step with the method that’s established below legislation that you just’re presupposed to comply with, or you can be discovered to have been within the language of the Administrative Process Act that governs how we implement the executive state, ‘arbitrary and capricious.’ You lose within the courts on course of grounds, not even on the deserves.”
Aldy additionally argues that the administration appears to be pursuing a variety of countervailing targets utilizing a wide range of instruments that may trigger unintended penalties.
“The prospect of tariffs typically actually work together with an agenda centered on making an attempt to advance oil and gasoline growth in the US. If we’re going to put tariffs on imported metal [the price of oil extraction will go up],” he remarks. “So, [when] importing crude oil, pure gasoline, or electrical energy from Canada… with tariffs, [it will] make [those] dearer domestically and have an effect on… each the enterprise case for utilizing power in addition to the home politics about power.”
The clear power tax credit contained within the Inflation Discount Act may additionally be in jeopardy, Aldy observes, though he admits there could also be pushback from some Republicans representing areas the place the tax credit have optimistic financial impression. And people could also be key votes, Aldy says, when the president’s proposed tax cuts come earlier than Congress.
“I believe there have been greater than a dozen Republicans who voted towards the tax invoice, the Trump tax cuts of 2017, within the Home of Representatives. They will’t lose a dozen votes this time. It’s a a lot tighter margin. And so, there’s a query about, is there ample help for sustaining at the very least some clear power tax credit going ahead?”
Importantly, Joe notes that even when the administration is profitable in efforts to decelerate the clear power transition, it received’t have the ability to cease it altogether.
“The clear power economic system within the U.S. is a lot extra superior now that signing government orders doesn’t have an effect on the 30-plus gigawatts of photo voltaic that was put in final yr. It doesn’t have an effect on the truth that we’ve been putting in extra wind energy yearly for the previous decade than we’ve pure gasoline when it comes to incremental capability funding. All… the individuals who not too long ago purchased EVs, they’re nonetheless going to drive their EVs. We’re nonetheless going to provide energy from these renewable energy amenities,” he argues.
“I believe that we’re going to see increasingly enterprise funding, as a result of the enterprise case for clear power is getting higher and higher, even when the coverage atmosphere is getting extra unsure,” he says. “It signifies that the worst-case situation, at the very least when it comes to what occurs to our emissions and our power economic system, is mainly like stasis. We have to speed up if we’re going to be as much as the problem of the issue, however I believe we are going to simply discover ourselves treading water for some time. The problem is whether or not or not there’s actually unhealthy spillovers to different international locations.”
For this and far more, please take heed to my full podcast dialog with Joe Aldy, the 66th episode over the previous 5 years of the Environmental Insights sequence, with future episodes scheduled to drop every month. You’ll find a transcript of our dialog on the web site of the Harvard Environmental Economics Program. Earlier episodes have featured conversations with:
- Gina McCarthy, former Administrator of the U.S. Environmental Safety Company
- Nick Stern of the London College of Economics discussing his profession, British politics, and efforts to fight local weather change
- Andrei Marcu, founder and government director of the European Roundtable on Local weather Change and Sustainable Transition
- Paul Watkinson, Chair of the Subsidiary Physique for Scientific and Technological Recommendation (SBSTA) inside the United Nations Framework Conference on Local weather Change
- Jos Delbeke, professor on the European College Institute in Florence and on the KU Leuven in Belgium, and previously Director-Common of the European Fee’s DG Local weather Motion
- David Keith, professor at Harvard and a number one authority on geoengineering
- Joe Aldy, professor of the follow of public coverage at Harvard Kennedy College, with appreciable expertise engaged on local weather change coverage points within the U.S. authorities
- Scott Barrett, professor of pure useful resource economics at Columbia College, and an authority on infectious illness coverage
- Rebecca Henderson, John and Natty McArthur College Professor at Harvard College, and founding co-director of the Enterprise and Atmosphere Initiative at Harvard Enterprise College.
- Sue Biniaz, who was the lead local weather lawyer and a lead local weather negotiator for the US from 1989 till early 2017.
- Richard Schmalensee, the Howard W. Johnson Professor of Administration, and Professor of Economics Emeritus on the Massachusetts Institute of Expertise.
- Kelley Kizier, Affiliate Vice President for Worldwide Local weather on the Environmental Protection Fund.
- David Hone, Chief Local weather Change Adviser, Shell Worldwide.
- Vicky Bailey, 30 years of expertise in company and authorities positions within the power sector.
- David Victor, professor of worldwide relations on the College of California, San Diego.
- Lisa Friedman, reporter on the local weather desk on the The New York Instances.
- Coral Davenport, who covers power and environmental coverage for The New York Instances from Washington.
- Spencer Dale, BP Group Chief Economist.
- Richard Revesz, professor on the NYU College of Legislation.
- Daniel Esty, Hillhouse Professor of Atmosphere and Legislation at Yale College.
- William Hogan, Raymond Plank Analysis Professor of World Vitality Coverage at Harvard.
- Jody Freeman, Archibald Cox Professor of Legislation at Harvard Legislation College.
- John Graham, Dean Emeritus, Paul O’Neill College of Public and Environmental Affairs, Indiana College.
- Gernot Wagner, Medical Affiliate Professor at New York College.
- John Holdren, Analysis Professor, Harvard Kennedy College.
- Larry Goulder, Shuzo Nishihara Professor of Environmental and Useful resource Economics, Stanford College.
- Suzi Kerr, Chief Economist, Environmental Protection Fund.
- Sheila Olmstead, Professor of Public Affairs, LBJ College of Public Affairs, College of Texas, Austin.
- Robert Pindyck, Financial institution of Tokyo-Mitsubishi Professor of Economics and Finance, MIT Sloan College of Administration.
- Gilbert Metcalf, Professor of Economics, Tufts College.
- Navroz Dubash, Professor, Centre for Coverage Analysis, New Delhi.
- Paul Joskow, Elizabeth and James Killian Professor of Economics emeritus, MIT.
- Maureen Cropper, Distinguished College Professor, College of Maryland.
- Orley Ashenfelter, the Joseph Douglas Inexperienced 1895 Professor of Economics, Princeton College.
- Jonathan Wiener, the William and Thomas Perkins Professor of Legislation, Duke Legislation College.
- Lori Bennear, the Juli Plant Grainger Affiliate Professor of Vitality Economics and Coverage, Nicholas College of the Atmosphere, Duke College.
- Daniel Yergin, founding father of Cambridge Vitality Analysis Associates, and now Vice Chair of S&P World.
- Jeffrey Holmstead, who leads the Environmental Methods Group at Bracewell in Washington, DC.
- Daniel Jacob, Vasco McCoy Household Professor of Atmospheric Chemistry & Environmental Engineering at Harvard.
- Michael Greenstone, Milton Friedman Distinguished Service Professor of Economics, College of Chicago.
- Billy Pizer, Vice President for Analysis & Coverage Engagement, Assets for the Future.
- Daniel Bodansky, Regents’ Professor, Sandra Day O’Connor School of Legislation, Arizona State College.
- Catherine Wolfram, Cora Jane Flood Professor of Enterprise Administration, Haas College of Enterprise, College of California, Berkeley, at present on go away on the Harvard Kennedy College.
- James Inventory, Harold Hitchings Burbank Professor of Political Economic system, Harvard College.
- Mary Nichols, long-time chief in California, U.S., and worldwide local weather change coverage.
- Geoffrey Heal, Donald Waite III Professor of Social Enterprise, Columbia Enterprise College.
- Kathleen Segerson, Board of Trustees Distinguished Professor of Economics, College of Connecticut.
- Meredith Fowlie, Professor of Agricultural and Useful resource Economics, U.C. Berkeley.
- Karen Palmer, Senior Fellow, Assets for the Future.
- Severin Borenstein, Professor of the Graduate College, Haas College of Enterprise, College of California, Berkeley.
- Michael Toffel, Senator John Heinz Professor of Environmental Administration and Professor of Enterprise Administration, Harvard Enterprise College.
- Emma Rothschild, Jeremy and Jane Knowles Professor of Historical past, Harvard College.
- Nathaniel Keohane, President, C2ES.
- Amy More durable, Govt Editor, Cypher Information.
- Richard Zeckhauser, Frank Ramsey Professor of Political Economic system, Harvard Kennedy College.
- Kimberly (Kim) Clausing, College of Legislation, College of California at Los Angeles
- Hunt Allcott, Professor of World Environmental Coverage, Stanford Doerr College of Sustainability.
- Meghan O’Sullivan, Jeane Kirkpatrick Professor of the Apply of Worldwide Affairs at Harvard Kennedy College.
- Robert Lawrence, Albert Williams Professor of Worldwide Commerce and Funding, Harvard Kennedy College.
- Charles Taylor, Assistant Professor of Public Coverage, Harvard Kennedy College.
- Wolfram Schlenker, Ray Goldberg Professor of the World Meals System, Harvard Kennedy College.
- Karen Fisher-Vanden, Professor of Environmental & Useful resource Economics, Pennsylvania State College
- Max Bearak, local weather and power reporter, New York Instances
- Vijay Vaitheeswaran, world power and local weather innovation editor, The Economist
“Environmental Insights” is hosted on SoundCloud, and can be accessible on iTunes, Pocket Casts, Spotify, and Stitcher.
