+77K vs. +141K (Bloomberg consensus). Utilizing the 2021M07-2025M01 relationship between ADP and BLS measures (in log first variations), I nowcast +125 vs Bloomberg +108K (though the 95% prediction interval encompasses a drop to 135310K from January’s 135479K).
Determine 1: Personal nonfarm payroll employment from ADP (blue line, left scale), Bloomberg consensus (gentle blue sq.), personal nonfarm payroll employment from BLS (crimson line, proper scale), Bloomberg consensus (gentle crimson sq.), writer’s nowcast (teal sq.). Supply: BLS, ADP through FRED, Bloomberg, and writer’s calculations.
The writer’s nowcast is predicated on 2021M07-2025M02 knowledge, regressing first differenced log personal BLS NFP on first differenced ADP personal NFP, and lagged first differenced BLS personal NFP (adj-R2 = 0.65, SER = 0.001, Breusch-Godfrey serial correlation take a look at with 2 lags fails to reject no serial correlation null at 10%).
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